Trillions ride on these decisions.
The path to US$10bn a year is one hundred countries at US$100m each. The obtainable number is higher.
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Log scale · Radii follow a logarithmic scale so the inner sphere stays visible. The outer shell's radius uses the midpoint of the stated range.
Nodes in this scene
Outer sphere: value at stake
US$2tn to US$4tn a year of value potential.
Decisions of consequence govern some of the largest money flows on earth. These are other people's estimates, not Sphere's.
| What | Figure | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Productivity value of generative AI · Generative artificial intelligenceAI that produces text, images or other content from a prompt. The McKinsey and BCG figures on the market page are estimates of its productivity value. across industries | US$2.6tn to US$4.4tn a year, across 63 use cases; banking alone US$200bn to US$340bn |
|
| Productivity value of generative AI in the public sector | US$1.75tn a year by 2033, across national, state and local government |
|
| Public procurement worldwide | US$11tn in 2018, 12 percent of global GDP · Gross domestic productThe value of everything a country produces in a year. Used on the market page to size what a state buys and to put Sphere's model beside the size of an economy.; a later estimate puts it at US$13tn |
|
| Money laundered each year | 2 to 5 percent of global GDP, or US$800bn to US$2tn |
|
| Worldwide IT · Information technologyComputing, software and the services around them. Gartner's worldwide IT spending figure is the reference the market page compares against. spending, 2026 | US$6.37tn, of which software US$1.47tn and IT · Information technologyComputing, software and the services around them. Gartner's worldwide IT spending figure is the reference the market page compares against. services US$1.57tn |
|
| Official development assistance, 2025 | US$174.3bn, down 23.1 percent in real terms, the largest fall on record; core support to the World Bank rose 6.4 percent and to regional banks 11.9 percent |
|
Middle sphere: serviceable market (Sphere estimate)
What institutions could reasonably spend on a governed decision layer once it is proven. Technology vendors typically capture a small share of the value they create; the default here is 10 percent.
| Pool | Value potential | Capture rate | Serviceable market at 10 percent |
|---|---|---|---|
| Public sector: governments, agencies, SOE · State-owned enterpriseState-owned enterprise, and the multilateral system they own | US$1.75tn a year (BCG)BCG, Generative AI for the Public SectorBCG · as of 2023-11as of 2023-11 | 10 percent | US$175bn a year |
| Regulated private sector in Sphere's verticals: banking, insurance, health payers, enterprise groups | US$0.35tn a year, anchored on McKinsey's banking range plus adjacent verticals (Sphere estimate)Sphere Corporate Strategy, September 2026Sphere · as of 2026-09as of 2026-09Estimate | 10 percent | US$35bn a year |
| Total | About US$200bn a yearLive figure: US$210bn · Sphere Corporate Strategy, September 2026Sphere · as of 2026-09 Sphere estimate |
Inner sphere: obtainable revenue (Sphere model)
100 countries × US$100m a year = US$10bn a year.
Sphere Corporate Strategy, September 2026Sphere · as of 2026-09as of 2026-09Illustrative model
Why US$100m a country is reasonable
Three sanity checks, each shown as a thin bar against its reference.
| Check | Arithmetic | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Against one country's purchasing | A mid-sized economy with US$250bn of GDP procures about US$30bn a year at 12 percent of GDP. US$100m is | 0.3 percent of what that state already buysWorld Bank, How large is public procurement?World Bank · as of 2020-02as of 2020-02 |
| Against public-sector value potential | US$10bn over US$1.75tn | 0.6 percentBCG, Generative AI for the Public SectorBCG · as of 2023-11as of 2023-11 |
| Against worldwide IT spending | US$10bn over US$6.37tn | 0.16 percentGartner, worldwide IT spending forecastGartner · as of 2026-07-27as of 2026-07-27 |
Live
- Against one country's purchasing0.3 percent · US$100m / US$30bn
- Against public-sector value potential0.6 percent · US$10bn / US$1.75tn
- Against worldwide IT spending0.16 percent · US$10bn / US$6.37tn
How one country reaches US$100m a year (illustrative defaults, all editable)
| Revenue line in one mid-sized country | Count | Average a year (US$ millions) | Subtotal |
|---|---|---|---|
| National programmes: justice, financial integrity, registries, procurement, tax and customs | US$30m | ||
| Ministries, agencies, regulators and SOEs on subscription with credits | US$30m | ||
| Regulated enterprises and enterprise groups | US$30m | ||
| Partner-financed replication: NGO · Non-governmental organisationA not-for-profit body independent of any government. In this landscape, NGOs are often the implementing partners who deliver programmes on the ground., MDB · Multilateral development bankMultilateral development bank: a bank owned by governments that lends and grants for development and fund programmes | US$10m | ||
| Total | US$100m(US$100m) |
Notea government is hundreds of institutions, and the strategy's enterprise tier starts at about US$250k a year before credits and upcharges. Sixty institutions is a small fraction of a state.
Three scenarios
100 countries × US$100m
Live figure: US$10bn
20 large × US$300m, 40 mid-sized × US$100m, 60 smaller × US$25m, plus US$0.5bn direct from MDB · Multilateral development bankMultilateral development bank: a bank owned by governments that lends and grants for development, UN · United NationsThe organisation of member states, founded in 1945, whose agencies, funds and programmes set international norms and run much of the world's humanitarian caseload. bodies, funds and global NGO · Non-governmental organisationA not-for-profit body independent of any government. In this landscape, NGOs are often the implementing partners who deliver programmes on the ground.
Live figure: US$12bn
Tiered, plus regulated private-sector verticals sold globally through vendor realms: 1,500 enterprises × US$6m
Live figure: US$21bn
Sources on this page
- S-01Sphere Corporate Strategy, September 2026, Sphereas of 2026-09
- S-06McKinsey Global Institute, The economic potential of generative AI, McKinsey Global Instituteas of 2023-06
- S-05BCG, Generative AI for the Public Sector, BCGas of 2023-11
- S-03World Bank, How large is public procurement?, World Bankas of 2020-02
- S-04Open Contracting Partnership and Spend Network, Open Contracting Partnershipas of 2020-08
- S-07UNODC, money laundering overview, UNODCas of 2026-09
- S-02Gartner, worldwide IT spending forecast, Gartneras of 2026-07-27
- S-08OECD, preliminary 2025 ODA data, OECDas of 2026-04